Friday, March 13, 2020

Battle of Waxhaws in the American Revolution

Battle of Waxhaws in the American Revolution The Battle of Waxhaws was fought May 29, 1780, during the American Revolution (1775-1783) and was one of several American defeats in the South that summer. In late 1778, with the fighting in the northern colonies increasingly becoming a stalemate, the British began to expand their operations to the south. This saw troops under Lieutenant Colonel Archibald Campbell land and capture Savannah, GA on December 29. Reinforced, the garrison withstood a combined Franco-American attack led by Major General Benjamin Lincoln and  Vice Admiral Comte dEstaing the following year. Seeking to expand this foothold, the British commander-in-chief in North America,  Lieutenant General Sir Henry Clinton, mounted a large expedition in 1780 to capture Charleston, SC. The Fall of Charleston Though Charleston had defeated an earlier British attack in 1776, Clintons forces were able to capture the city and Lincolns garrison on May 12, 1780 after a seven-week siege. The defeat marked the largest surrender of American troops during the war and left the Continental Army without a sizable force in the South. Following the American capitulation, British forces under Clinton occupied the city. Escaping North Six days later, Clinton dispatched Lieutenant General Lord Charles Cornwallis with 2,500 men to subdue the South Carolina back country. Advancing from the city, his force crossed the Santee River and moved towards Camden. En route, he learned from local Loyalists that South Carolina Governor John Rutledge was attempting to escape to North Carolina with a force of 350 men. This contingent was led by Colonel Abraham Buford and consisted of the 7th Virginia Regiment, two companies of the 2nd Virginia, 40 light dragoons, and two 6-pdr guns. Though his command included several veteran officers, the majority of Bufords men were untested recruits. Buford had originally been ordered south to aid in the Siege of Charleston, but when the city was invested by the British he received new directions from Lincoln to assume a position at Lenuds Ferry on the Santee River. Reaching the ferry, Buford soon learned of the citys fall and commenced withdrawing from the area. Retreating back toward North Carolina, he had a large lead on Cornwallis. Understanding that his column was too slow to catch the fleeing Americans, Cornwallis detached a mobile force under Lieutenant Colonel Banastre Tarleton on May 27 to run down Bufords men. Departing Camden late on May 28, Tarleton continued his pursuit of the fleeing Americans. Armies Commanders Americans Colonel Abraham Buford420 men British Lieutenant Colonel Banastre Tarleton270 men The Chase Tarletons command consisted of 270 men drawn from the 17th Dragoons, Loyalist British Legion, and a 3-pdr gun. Riding hard, Tarletons men covered over 100 miles in 54 hours. Warned of Tarletons rapid approach, Buford sent Rutledge ahead towards Hillsborough, NC with a small escort. Reaching Rugeleys Mill mid-morning on May 29, Tarleton learned that the Americans had camped there the previous night and were around 20 miles ahead. Pressing forward, the British column caught up with Buford around 3:00 PM at a location six miles south of the border near Waxhaws. The Battle of Waxhaws Defeating the American rearguard, Tarleton sent a messenger to Buford. Inflating his numbers to scare the American commander, he demanded Bufords surrender. Buford delayed responding while his men reached a more favorable position before replying, Sir, I reject your proposals, and shall defend myself to the last extremity. To meet Tarletons attack, he deployed his infantry into a single line with a small reserve to the rear. Opposite, Tarleton moved directly to assault the American position without waiting for his entire command to arrive. Forming his men on a small rise opposite the American line, he divided his men into three groups with one assigned to strike the enemy right, another the center, and the third the left. Moving forward, they began their charge approximately 300 yards from the Americans. As the British approached, Buford ordered his men to hold their fire until they were 10-30 yards away. While an appropriate tactic against infantry, it proved disastrous against cavalry. The Americans were able to fire one volley before Tarletons men shattered their line. With the British dragoons hacking with their sabers, the Americans began surrender while others fled the field. What happened next is a subject of controversy. One Patriot witness, Dr. Robert Brownfield, claimed that Buford waved a white flag to surrender. As he called for quarter, Tarletons horse was shot, throwing the British commander the ground. Believing their commander to have been attacked under a flag of truce, the Loyalists renewed their attack, slaughtering the remaining Americans, including wounded. Brownfield insinuates that this continuation of hostilities was encouraged by Tarleton (Brownfield Letter). Other Patriot sources claim that Tarleton ordered the renewed attack as he did not wish to be encumbered with prisoners. Regardless, the butchery continued with American troops, including wounded, being struck down. In his report after the battle, Tarleton stated that his men, believing him struck down, continued the fight with a vindictive asperity not easily restrained. After approximately fifteen minutes of fighting the battle concluded. Only around 100 Americans, including Buford, succeeded in escaping the field. Aftermath The defeat at Waxhaws cost Buford 113 killed, 150 wounded, and 53 captured. British losses were a light 5 killed and 12 wounded. The action at Waxhaws quickly earned Tarleton nicknames such as Bloody Ban and Ban the Butcher. In addition, the term Tarletons Quarter quickly came to mean that no mercy would be given. The defeat became a rallying cry in the region and led many to flock to the Patriot cause. Among those were numerous local militias, particularly those from over the Appalachian Mountains, which would play a key role at the Battle of Kings Mountain that October. Vilified by the Americans, Tarleton was decisively defeated by Brigadier General Daniel Morgan at the Battle of Cowpens in January 1781. Remaining with Cornwallis army, he was captured at the Battle of Yorktown. In negotiating the British surrender, special arrangements had to be made to protect Tarleton due to his unsavory reputation. After the surrender, the American officers invited all of their British counterparts to dine with them but specifically forbade Tarleton from attending.

Wednesday, February 26, 2020

Suprime letting Literature review Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Suprime letting Literature review - Essay Example While there is no official credit profile that describes a sub prime borrower, it is generally accepted that people in the United States having a credit score below 620 points will fall into this category. In an attempt to tap this burgeoning market, lenders often speculate and take risks associated with lending to people with poor financial records. Sub prime offers an opportunity for borrowers with a less than ideal credit record to gain access to credit. It has been found that over the past six years, home ownership nationwide increased from 66 percent of the working population, to almost 70 percent. The pros and cons of sub prime markets will now be discussed in the literature review .The obvious advantage of Sub-Prime letting is of course the fact that people with poor credit history, low income and no assets are able to borrow money from many banks and lending company's .This is advantageous also as small or no deposit is accepted and this may prove attractive to many people wh o are not aware of the consequences of such borrowing or lending.However this market has its cons in the sense that it is unpredictable due to variable interest rate and the debtors may not be able to able to keep up with the payments thus causing credit victimization as the lenders may be able repossess the property/ business and are able to profit from re-sale through draconian lending contracts. Aims The main research question therefore is "To what extent has the sub- prime phenomenon of the US financial markets affected the UK economy" The reason for selecting this topic is the recent financial crisis in the US sub-prime markets which has caused a world wide concern as to its concerns for its e effects and fall-outs on the EU Bloc which includes the UK. The research will be undertaken through a variety of secondary and primary research methodologies to have a better understanding of the research question within the given time scale.Secondary Research Questions What is Sub-Prime letting What is the relationship between the UK and American Housing market What are the current conditions in the American Housing market with reference to Sub prime letting The aim is to identify the correlations between American Mortgage lenders and the UK lenders. Economic conditions, interest rates, inflations and other factors. With reference to economic conditions we may be able to identify as to why people are subjected to the sub prime market. What are the pros and cons of sub prime mortgage lending Research Strategy Research is a fact finding activity (Dominowski, 1980). The aim of primary research is to make known something previously unknown to human beings and to advance human knowledge by making it more certain or better fitting; the aim is discovery (Elias, 1986). Kerlinger (1970) uses more technical language to define it as the systematic, controlled, empirical and critical investigation of hypothetical propositions about presumed relations among natural phenomena. The research philosophy depends on the way we think about the development of knowledge and this thinking affects the way we do search (Saunders 2000). Whilst undertaking the research, a clear understanding of

Sunday, February 9, 2020

Influences on the Work of John Keats Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Influences on the Work of John Keats - Essay Example As emphasized, these adversities allegedly contributed to his understanding of the role of the artist as the explorer of how art’s power can bring meaning and consolation to people’s suffering. (Poetry Foundation, 2014, par. 5). The current discourse hereby contends that the biggest influences on the work of John Keats include personal experiences on loneliness, love, and illness. The biography of John Keats revealed that the poet wrote his famous odes, with thoughts of longing for his brothers. One of his brothers, Tom, reportedly died of tuberculosis, while George, another brother, departed to America (Stanford University, 2011). The works were described to have been strongly influenced by emotions ranging from loneliness, longing, and despair, to wit: â€Å"The poems known as the Great Odes—â€Å"Ode to a Nightingale,† â€Å"Ode on a Grecian Urn,† â€Å"Ode to Melancholy,† â€Å"To Autumn,† and others, written in the spring of 1819, after Tom’s death and George’s departure—describe the misery into which the poet had plunged after the loss of his brothers. Likewise, the themes in some of these odes have been influenced by the poet’s adeptness to focus on humanities and the arts as a means of dissociating himself to feelings of isolation. More specifically, in the â€Å"Ode to a Nightingale†, the narrator describes his fascination with the expressive power of music, and in the â€Å"Ode on a Grecian Urn†, the speaker talks about his admiration of how sculpture reflects the stories frozen in time. The influence of romance or love were also noted to be present in some of Keats’ works. As love had been a strong emotional force that provided the impetus and inspiration for other literary artists, John Keats’ romantic experiences shared similar influence. Accordingly, one influential person in Keats’ life was Isabella Jones (Poem Hunter, 2014). As  emphasized in various works, the poet used to visit her frequently during the winter of 1818-1819; he also stated that their relationship was intimate.  

Thursday, January 30, 2020

Organizational Learning Essay Example for Free

Organizational Learning Essay 1. 0 Introduction The title of this journal is Organizational Learning Practices in the Project Management Environment. The author is Timothy G. Kotnour from University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida, USA. This journal focuses on understanding how project managers continuously improve their project quality and performance by building knowledge through learning. Beside that, for the project organization to learn, organizational members must create, share and apply knowledge. The organizations members will create new knowledge for learning experiences. Learning-by-doing occurs when a problem solver associates plans and actions to accomplish positive results and avoid negative results (Anzai, 1987). While, the plan-duty-study-act (PDSA) cycle, is used to represent the learning process in a project environment. There have two learning cycle in this journal which is Inter-project learning cycle and Intra-project learning cycle. Inter-project learning is the combining and sharing of lessons learned across projects to apply and develop new knowledge. Tools to support inter-project learning include information technology tools and employee groups aimed at sharing knowledge across the organization provides a detailed example of an online system for recognizing, documenting, validating and making available lessons learned for an organization. While, intra-project learning is the creation and sharing of knowledge within a project. Intra-project learning focuses on tasks within a single project and supports the delivery of a successful project by identifying problems and solving them during the project. Learning take place when a project team members discuss approaches for completing a task or overcoming problems. The intra-learning occurs throughout routine reporting cycle such as weekly or monthly status and review meetings, project deliverables or major occurrences in the project. 2. 0 Research Methodology Framework The research methodology involves a lessons learned oriented survey was completely by 43 project managers who were attending a chapter meeting of the Project Management Institute. The survey used to lesson learned terminology because it is more familiar to project managers than organization learning. The survey contained four question sets. The first set asked project manager their background in project management. The second set focused on how project managers produce lessons learned which is including when, what about, how know, what to produce a lesson learned about and what is included in a lesson learned. While, the third set asked respondent to describe, using five-point Likert scale ( 5 = strongly agree, 4 = agree, 3 = not sure, 2 = disagree, 1 = strongly disagree ), which is the degree to which they practice project management learning practices. Next the fourth set asked respondent to describe using a five-point Likert scale the degree to which their organization is achieving the learning outcomes. Factor analysis was performed on the third and fourth data sets. There are five general steps to factor analysis which is assessing applicability of the factor analysis process, determining the number of factors through factor extraction, grouping the variables into factors according to factor loading, producing weighted factor scores and lastly each factors reliability was computed using Cronbach’s alpha 3. 0 Framework, Independent Variable (IV) and Dependent Variable (DV) The learning framework offer an implications for a project manager to use in focusing the learning activities of a project team which is first, the opportunity for learning is an inherent part of the project management process. The project management process parallels the learning process. The steps in the process provide the foundation for learning. In a discussion with a project manager, most of the them viewed producing lessons learned as a valuable and important exercises. However, they felt that they did not have time to complete a formal lesson learned and viewed the learning as a separate activity. This situation showed that, there has a weak relationship between IV and DV. Second, the use of lessons learned can be conducted throughout a project life-cycle, not just at the end of the project. Using the intra-learning cycle, lesson learned can be produced for each cycle in a project to carry on learning to the next cycle and to the next project. And the lastly is the learning process can break down at any stage of the intra- or inter-learning PDSA cycle. For example, the break down can happened in the learning process if there have not using the project management process and tools in a systematic fashion on the model of intra- and inter-project learning. Other than that, the learning process also can fail in the â€Å"plan† step by not reviewing past plans and lessons learned to apply to the current project. In the â€Å"do† step, learning can break down as a result of the project team not following the plan or collecting data on the performance and changes to the plans. While learning also can fail in the â€Å"study† step by not analysing project performance with project tools and not competing lesson learned. Finally, in the act â€Å"step†, learning process can fail because there have no sharing with or incorporating lessons learned into the next project. 4. 0 Result of the Journal The results of survey analysis in this journal are divided into two areas. First, hypothesis testing is completed and second descriptive analysis is completed on how project managers produce lesson learned. Table III contains the result of regression analysis for hypothesis testing. [pic] 4. 1 Project Performance As shown in Table III, project management performance is positively associated with project knowledge. Having knowledge about what could be wrong, ways to ensure success and ways to avoid problems supports the organization in delivering better products and services and managing projects better regarding plan a project and meet cost, schedule and performance requirements. 4. 2 Project Management. As shown in Table III, intra- and inter-project learning practices are directly associated with project knowledge. Producing lesson learned is hypothesized to support the intra- and inter-project learning activities by providing a mechanism to reflect on the project and sharing the knowledge across the project. 4. 3 Learning Practices. Based on Table III, producing a lesson learned is related to inter-project learning. The important factor to increase inter-project learning is not just to produce a lessons learned but to conduct multiple activities for producing lesson learned. 4. 4 Learning Support According on Table III, learning support is needed for each of the learning activities such as inter, intra and lesson learned. Collecting data about the set of steps on a project supports intra-project learning by providing the data and information to compare against the plan and identify mistakes. Being willing to openly and honestly address the mistakes helps drive the learning for intra-project learning and produce lessons learned which can be shared across the organization through inter-project learning. 5. 0 Suggestion/Recommendation There have some recommendation for organizational practices in the project management environment. Project organizations are faced with continuously improving the quality and performance of their products and services to compete in the competitive environment. To learning such an integrated in the project management environments from project experiences to improve knowledge and performance, there must have provide a learning framework which defines the learning processes in a project management environmental. Beside that, analysing the survey result of practicing project manager’s perception on learning outcomes and practices. Other than that, by integrating and sharing the experiences and learning across project, the organizational will have a greater knowledge. While, project team members must need support for learning to enable them to learn from experiences. Next, for developed organizational practices in the project management environment, the factor analysis and reliability results for the project management learning practices should be provided. This included how project manager share knowledge from one project to next, how project managers create knowledge during a project and the action project managers take to support the learning process. There also recommend to provides the factor analysis and reliability results for the learning outcomes. There have 2 factors for learning outcome which is the increased knowledge by sharing lessons learned across projects and how to learning process helps the organization improve in managing a project and delivering products and services. 6. 0 Conclusions As a conclusion, project organization should focus on building knowledge because increased knowledge is associated with increased project performance. To support knowledge building the organization must focus on the learning both and between projects. However, the learning process needs to support by using management tools to plan and monitor results. There also needs to be supported with an environment which allows team members to admit mistakes and openly discuss solutions to problems. All of this needs to be completed to lead to project management success. 7. 0 References Kotnour, T. G. , Orr, C., Spaulding, J. and Guidi, J. (1997), Determining the benefit of knowledge management activities, 1997 International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, October 12-15, pp. 94-9. Anzai, Y. (1987), Doing, understanding, and learning in problem solving, in Klahr, D. , Langley, P. and Neches, R (Eds), Production System Models of Learning and Development, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, pp. 55-98. Argyris, C. and Schon, D. A. (1978), Organizational Learning: A Theory of Action Perspective,Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA. Abdullah, H. S. Research Method Guide. Gido, C. Effective Project Management, 5th Edition.

Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Biography And History: Harriet Jacobs The Life Of A Slave Girl :: essays research papers

Biography and History: Harriet Jacob's The Life of a Slave Girl To be a good writer, you must posess a careful balance between detachment and association, a delicate waltz where you are not so wrapped up in the events of a story that it alienates the reader, and yet not so far separated from the subject matter that the readers cannot get into it. This is espectially the case in an autobiographical narrative. In this case, it is very difficult to detach yourself from the main subject matter, that is, yourself. Yet it must remain a story, and the story at its heart is a reconstruction of facts from the memory of the author. In the case of Harriet Jacobs, it was also important that she make sure the readers understood slavery from a woman's perspective. The hardships she had to endure not only entailed the work and the punishments, but also the sexual aspect of being a slave-girl. Her task is difficult, because in order for the reader to really understand her position as a woman and a slave, she must make the story extremely personal. If it is too personal, however, the reader looses sight of the bigger picture, and does not relate all these hardships to the condition of the general female slave. She accomplishes this in two ways, through her writing style, and the writing content. The style that the novel is written varies from a dialogue to a narrative, depending on the subject matter being written about. For example, the dialogue where Mrs. Flint confronts Linda (Jocobs) and asks her what has been going on with her husband is handled very effectively, because as a conversation between two people, we are able to pick up on the nuances of meaning. Also, it makes the situation seem to the reader as very exhilarating, because we don't know what's going to happen next. Two paragraphs later, though, the story has turned back into narrative, because Jacobs is trying to examine the entire situation in her present day, as a free woman. She has to be detached from the conversation in order for her to draw any conclusions. The conclusion she draws is that even though they are in different circumstances, (Linda is a slave and Mrs. Flint is her mistress), they both have a shared problem as women -- that is, the problems of infedelity. This general topic cannot be dealt with effectively unless it is done at a distance, looking back with the experience she has gained. Jacobs does this a lot -- she takes her own present-day experiences and

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Critical Analysis of Kant’s Moral Philosophy Essay

The most essential motive of moral philosophy in Kant’s view is to â€Å"seek out† the introductory principle of metaphysics of morals. Kant explains this project through the first two chapters of the Groundwork. He advances by analyzing and explicating commonsense thoughts about morality. The purpose is to come up with a clear-cut statement of the opinion on which all of our regular moral judgements are based. The judgement in a question is supposed to be acceptable by any normal human being. In recent times, Kant is regarded as an overly optimistic with regards to the depth and reach of moral agreement. See more: how to write a critical analysis essay step by step But he is good in drawing moral views which is extensively shared and which contains general judgements that are profound. He does not appear as someone who populates the works of moral philosophers or someone who needs a reason to act morally or someone whose reactions have moral motive because of some rationale. For instance, in the third and final chapter of the Groundwork, Kant takes up his second elementary endeavour, to â€Å"establish† this foundational moral principle as a demand of each person’s own rational will, his conclusion falls short of answering those who want a proof that we really are bound by moral requirements. He bases this second project on the point that we possess self-sufficiency. The argument of this project does not propagate a metaphysical fact about our wills. This has led some readers to a conclusion that he is trying to validate moral requirements by alluring to a fact that even a moral disbeliever would have to identify. The most justifiable points of his dispute to establish the basic belief of morality rest on an assertion that will not stir a true disbeliever, that the self-sufficiency of our wills is a supposition of any realistic point of view. Moral requirements project themselves as being completely essential. But an a posteriori method seems unsuitable in establishing what we must do; it only tells us what we actually do. So an a posteriori method of seeking out the belief that generates such requirements will not carry the appearance of moral ‘oughts’ as necessities. Kant argued that experimental observations could only convey conclusions about the comparative benefits of moral actions in various situations. Such researched would not support the absolute necessity of moral requirements. It would view them as demands for which conformity is not necessary. Thus, Kant argued that if moral philosophy is to protect against deterioration of the necessity of obligation in defence of moral thought, it must be carried out entirely a priori. Although these are the two fundamental aims of moral philosophy, they are not, the only aims. Moral philosophy addresses the question, ‘What ought I to do? ’ and an answer to that question requires much more than delivering the basic belief of morality. A satisfying answer to the question of what one should do would have to take into account any political and religious requirements. Moral philosophy should emphasize on the ultimate end of human endeavour, the Highest Good, and its connection to the moral life. In the Critique of Practical Reason, Kant argued that this Highest Good for Humanity is complete moral virtue together with complete joy. Unfortunately, Kant noted, virtue does not assure well being and may even conflict with it. Further, there is no real possibility of moral excellence in this life and only few of us are lucky enough to experience the happiness. There are certain aims for which some methods need to be employed. These methods of moral philosophy are questioned time and again by Kant. One a fundamental principle is sought, and then the facts drawn from experiences and the conclusions can be considered to determine how best these methods can be applied. The Groundwork appeals repeatedly for pragmatic facts based on practical principles. Kant analyses the commonsense ideas and he says that the only good things any qualification is a ‘good will’. ‘The good will’ is not an ordinary notion and Kant says that the idea of a good will is closer to that of a ‘good person’ or a ‘person of good will’. This idea of ‘good will’ is a vital touchstone that Kant keeps revisiting throughout his work. The basic idea is that what makes a person good. It is his possession of a good will that determines the goodness, or the way he makes decisions on the basis of moral law, and how he holds that decision morally taking into considerations all the moral aspects. This sort of temperament is something that is highly valued. Kant believes that we value it without restraint or any qualification. By this Kant believes that there are two things that matter. First, that unlike anything else, there is no possible circumstance in which we regard our own moral goodness as worth giving up simply in order to obtain some desirable object. There is no hidden limitation to the outcome that a purpose to give moral considerations decisive weight is worth honouring, but only under certain circumstances. Second, maintaining one’s moral integrity is the most important condition under which anything else is worth accessing. Intelligence and pleasure are worth having only if they do not require giving up one’s fundamental moral convictions. The value of a good will cannot secure certain valuable ends. Kant points out that a good will must be good in itself and not in virtue of its relationship to other things. In Kant’s terms, a good will’s decisions are entirely determined by moral demands. Kant has called this as a Moral Law. Human beings view this law as a constraint on their desires. A will in which the Moral Law is crucial is motivated by the thought of duty. It is the existence of desires that makes goodness in human beings a constraint, independent of prevalence of morals. This is an indispensable element of the idea of ‘duty’. So in analyzing unqualified goodness we are investigating the idea of being motivated by the thought that we are constrained to act in certain ways that we might not want to. Kant asserts this by contrasting motivation by duty with other motives, such as motives of self-interest, self-preservation, sympathy and happiness. He argues that a submissive action from any of these motives, does not express a good will. Assuming an action has moral worth only if it expresses a good will, such actions have no genuine ‘moral worth’. The conventionality of one’s action to duty in such cases is only related by accident to content of one’s will. Kant’s views in this regard have understandably been the subject of much controversy. According to Kant, what is remarkable about inspiration by duty is that it consists of respect for lawfulness. What logically comes to mind is that duties are created by rules or laws. City and state laws establish the duties of citizens. Thus, if we do something because it is our ‘civic’ duty, our motivation is respect for the code that makes it our duty. Thinking we are duty bound is respecting certain laws pertaining to us. The difference between being motivated by a sense of duty in the ordinary sense, and being motivated by duty, in Kant’s sense is, that motivation by duty is motivation by our respect for whatever law it is. Our respect for the laws guiding us is qualified, in the sense that the law gives us a duty is compelling only if there is no law we respect more that conflicts with it. The missing line of argument reveals a characteristic of Kant’s approach, his account of the content of moral requirements and the nature of moral analysis. It says that it is based on the unique force moral considerations that have reasons to act. Since they retain their reason-giving force under any situation, they have universal authority. So, whatever else may be said of moral requirements, their substance is universal. Only a universal law could be the content of a requirement that has the reason-giving force of morality. This brings Kant to a introductory formulation, ‘I ought never to act except in such a way that I could also will that my maxim should become a universal law’. This is the principle which motivates a good will, and which Kant holds to be the fundamental principle of all of morality. Works Cited http://plato. stanford. edu/entries/kant-moral/ http://www. press. uchicago. edu/presssite/metadata. epl? mode=synopsis&bookkey=41315

Monday, January 6, 2020

The Baby Boom and the Future of the Economy

Whats going to happen to the economy as all the baby boomers get older and retire? Its a great question that would need an entire book to properly answer. Fortunately, many books have been written on the relationship between the baby boom and the economy. Two good ones from the Canadian perspective are Boom, Bust Echo by Foot and Stoffman, and 2020: Rules for the New Age by Garth Turner. The Ratio Between Working People and Retired People Turner explains that the big changes will be due to the fact that the ratio between the number of working people to the number of retired people will change dramatically over the next few decades: When most boomers were in their teens, there were six Canadians like them, under the age of 20, for every person over 65. Today there are about three young people for every senior. By 2020, the ratio will be even more frightening. This will have profound consequences on our entire society. (80) Demographic changes will have a major impact on the ratio of retirees to workers; the ratio of the number of people ages 65 and over to the number ages 20 to 64 is expected to grow from about 20% in 1997 to 41% in 2050. (83) Examples of Expected Economic Impact These demographic changes will have both macroeconomic as well as microeconomic impacts. With so few people of working age, we can expect that wages will rise as employers fight to retain the small pool of labor available. This also implies that unemployment should be fairly low. But simultaneously taxes will also have to be quite high to pay for all the services that seniors require such as government pensions and Medicare. Older citizens tend to invest differently than younger ones, as older investors tend to buy less risky assets like bonds and sell riskier ones such as stocks. Do not be surprised to find that the price of bonds rises (causing their yields to fall) and the price of stocks to fall. There will be millions of smaller changes as well. The demand for soccer fields should fall as there are relatively fewer people will the demand for golf courses should rise. The demand for large suburban homes should fall as seniors move into one story condos and later to old-age homes. If youre investing in real estate, it will be important to consider the change in demographics when youre considering what to buy.