Oedipus Rex - Bliss In Ignorance Essays (795 words) -

Oedipus Rex - Bliss In Ignorance Oedipus Rex - Bliss in Ignorance One of the most memorable and meaningful Socratic quotes applies well when in context of Sophocles' Theban Trilogy. The unexamined life is not worth living, proclaims Socrates. He could have meant many things by this statement, and in relation to the play, the meaning is found to be even more complex. Indeed, the situation of Oedipus, king of Thebes, the truth of this statement is in question. Would Oedipus have been better off if he was blind to the knowledge of his birthing and the fate which was foretold to someday befall him? Truly though, his life would have been a far better and easier path had he never known about his true origins. His life in Corinth would have been long and prosperous, and Thebes would have lived on under King Laius. In fact, everyone would have been better off in the long run if Oedipus had not ventured out beyond the walls of Corinth. So is it worth living an examined life? Socrates had made this statement long after the creation of the Theban Trilogy. In the context of his own time, this was meant to imply that life must be examined and reflected upon, known and discovered by each individual philosopher to better enrich life for all. Yet in terms of Sophoclean drama, specifically Oedipus Rex, this was meant in a vastly different way. The unexamined life was one that was in the dark, unknown as to what fate lied beyond every turn and irony of living. Oedipus, up to the point in which he heard the comment in the tavern in Corinth, lived an unexamined life. To Socrates, he was an unfulfilled man, one who deserved to know more, one who not complete. However, in a much less metaphysical sense, Oedipus' life was complete, in that he had all that he needed, and was living a happy and fruitful life. As the drama progresses, he finds out more and more, learning exactly what the implications of his birth was, he suffers the fate for examining his life. So what Socrates had meant, that the life which was not rich with self exploration and reflection was not worth living, was indeed different than its application in terms of Oedipus, who's life was unexamined, yet complete. The question arises, what would life have been like, if Oedipus had not discovered his true origins? If he had stayed in Corinth, would this have ever happened? We find that indeed, we would have had no story, if not for that lone comment of a drunkard which sparked the fire of rebellion in the young prince Oedipus. He ventured out to Delphi, to pry knowledge of his background out of it, and to discover if this was indeed the truth, despite the fact that his adopted parents of Corinth had assured him of it falseness. Oedipus leaves Corinth, fulfilling the Socratic idea of the unexamined life. However, we must evaluate the eventual consequences of his actions and the implications which they possess. What becomes of his fateful journey out of Corinth leads to the downfall of an entire city and family line. If he had not murdered King Laius, the Sphinx would have never descended upon Thebes, he would have never fulfilled the prophecy, and all would have lived on in a relative peace and tranquillity. Once examining these aspects of the relationship between the quote and Oedipus Rex, we can come to a final examination of its implications. The question which was addressed, that of the value of the examined life, can be answered. Indeed, if Oedipus had not ventured beyond the protective walls of his adopted home, would anything such as what occurred in the play ever have transpired? If Oedipus had not pursued that answers to the mysteries that plagued him, despite the pleading warnings of I?casta, in fact his life would have been contented and happy. Instead, he follows the Socratic method of exploration and discovery, and proceeds down the path of pain and distraught. Was, after it was over, all worth it? We find that no, it was not. Being content and suited with what he knew of himself would have saved Oedipus and his children/siblings much agony. However, in the typical Greek tragedy, we must see his fall from grace through, which is indeed what happens. In the bliss of ignorance, much pain and difficulty is averted. For what worries does the ignorant man have? In the case of Oedipus, ignorance would have suited him fine. The Socratic quote the unexamined life is

Son of Sam - Killer David Berkowitz

Son of Sam - Killer David Berkowitz David Berkowitz, better known as Son of Sam and the .44 Caliber Killer, is an infamous 1970s New York City serial killer who killed six people and wounded several others. His crimes became legendary because of the bizarre content in the letters that he wrote to the police and the media and his reasons for committing the attacks. With the police feeling the pressure to catch the killer, Operation Omega was formed, which was comprised of over 200 detectives; all working on finding the Son of Sam before he killed again. Berkowitzs Childhood Born Richard David Falco,  June 1, 1953, he was adopted by Nathan and Pearl Berkowitz. The family lived in a middle-class home in the Bronx. The couple loved and doted on their son yet Berkowitz grew up feeling rejected and scorned because of being adopted. His size and appearance did not help matters. He was larger than most of the kids his age and not particularly attractive. His parents were not social people and Berkowitz followed in that path, developing a reputation for being a loner. Berkowitz Was Plagued With Guilt and Anger Berkowitz was an average student and did not show any particular flair for any one subject. He did, however, develop into a decent baseball player which became his main outside activity. Around the neighborhood, he had a reputation for being hyper and a bully. Believing his natural mother died while giving birth to him was the source of intense guilt and anger inside Berkowitz. Some believe it was the reason for his anti-social and aggressive behavior as a child. The Death of His Mother Pearl Berkowitz had a reoccurrence with breast cancer and died in 1967. Berkowitz was devastated and became severely depressed. He viewed his mother’s death as a master plot designed to destroy him. He began to fail in school and spent most of his time alone. When his father remarried in 1971, his new wife did not get along with the young Berkowitz, and the newlyweds moved to Florida leaving 18-year-old Berkowitz behind. Berkowitz Reunites With His Birth Mother Berkowitz joined the army and after a disastrous three years, he left the service. During that time, he had his one and only sexual experience with a prostitute and caught a venereal disease. When he returned home from the army, he found out his natural mother was still alive and that he had a sister. There was a brief reunion, but eventually, Berkowitz stopped visiting. His isolation, fantasies, and paranoid delusions were now in full force. Driven by Demons On Christmas Eve 1975, Berkowitz’s â€Å"demons† drove him out into the streets with a hunting knife to find a victim to kill. Later he confessed to plunging his knife into two women, one which could not be confirmed. The second victim, 15-year-old Michelle Forman, survived the attack and was treated for six knife wounds. Soon after the attacks, Berkowitz moved out of the Bronx to a two-family home in Yonkers. It was in this home that the Son of Sam would be created. Howling dogs in the neighborhood kept Berkowitz from sleeping and in his deranged mind, he turned their howls into messages from demons that were ordering him to go kill women. He later said that in an attempt to quiet the demons, he began to do what they asked. Jack and Nann Cassara owned the home and in time Berkowitz became convinced that the quiet couple was in truth, part of the demon conspiracy, with Jack being General Jack Cosmo, commander in chief of the dogs that tormented him. When he moved away from the Cassaras into an apartment on Pine Street, he failed to escape the controlling demons. His new neighbor, Sam Carr, had a black Labrador named Harvey, who Berkowitz believed was also possessed. He eventually shot the dog, but that did not offer him relief because he had come to believe that Sam Carr was possessed by the most powerful demon of them all, possibly Satan himself. Nightly the demons screamed at Berkowitz to go kill, their thirst for blood unquenchable. The Arrest of the Son of Sam Berkowitz was eventually caught after receiving a parking ticket at the time and near the place of the Moskowitz murder. That evidence along with letters he wrote to Carr and the Cassaras, his military background, his appearance, and an arson incident, led police to his door. When he was arrested he immediately surrendered to police and identified himself as Sam, telling the police, Well, youve got me. After being evaluated, it was determined that he could stand trial. Berkowitz stood trial in August 1978 and pled guilty to six murders. He received 25 years to life for each of the murders. Berkowitzs Crime Spree July 29, 1976 – Jody Valenti and Donna Lauria were shot as they sat talking in a parked car outside Donna’s apartment. Lauria died instantly from a gunshot wound to her neck. Valenti survived the attack.October 23, 1976 – Carl Denaro and Rosemary Keenan were shot while sitting in Denaro’s parked car. Both survived, but Carl was struck in the head by one of the bullets.November 26, 1976 – Donna DeMasi and 18-year-old Joanne Lomino were walking near Joanne’s home after a late movie. Berkowitz followed them briefly, then shot them. Donna survived without suffering permanent physical harm, but Joanne was paralyzed for life.January 30, 1977 – 26-year-old Christine Freund and her fiance John Diel were shot as they sat in a parked car. Christine died and John Diel survived the attack.March 8, 1977 – Virginia Voskerichian, a Barnard College honor student was shot and killed while walking home from class.April 17, 1977 – 18-year-o ld Valentina Suriani and her 20-year-old boyfriend Alexander Esau, were shot twice. Both died as a result of gunshot wounds. Berkowitz left a letter at the scene, signed â€Å"Son of Sam.† June 26, 1977 – Judy Placido and Sal Lupu were shot while leaving a disco. Both survived although Judy was shot three times.July 31, 1977 – Bobby Violante and Stacy Moskowitz were shot in the car while parked at a lover’s lane. Stacy died from a gunshot wound to her head and Bobby lost vision in one eye and partial vision in the other eye. The Ressler Interview In 1979, Berkowitz was interviewed by FBI veteran, Robert Ressler. Berkowitz admitted that he invented the â€Å"Son of Sam† stories so that if caught he could convince the court that he was insane. He said the real reason he killed was because he felt resentment toward his mother and his failures with women. He found killing the women to be sexually arousing. Throat Slashed On  July 10, 1979, Berkowitz was giving out water to the other inmates in his section when another inmate,  William E.  Hauser, attacked him with a razor blade and slashed his throat. Berkowitz was too afraid to cooperate with the investigation despite that it nearly cost him his life. Hausers name was not released to the public until 2015 when the for Attica superintendent James Conway revealed it. Serving His Time Berkowitz is currently serving a life sentence at the maximum-security Shawangunk Correctional Facility in Wallkill after being transferred from Sullivan Correctional Facility in Fallsburg, New York where he spent several years. Since entering prison, he has become a member of the Jews for Jesus religious group. Berkowitz had refused to attend any of his parole hearings since he became eligible for possible release in 2002. However, in May 2016 he changed his mind and attended his parole hearing. Berkowitz, 63 at the time, told the parole board, â€Å"I was constantly putting myself out there to help other individuals, with kindness and compassion,† he said. â€Å"I mean, I feel that’s my life’s calling, all these years. My evaluations, and so forth, should show that to be true. I’ve done a lot of good and positive things, and I thank God for that.† He was denied parole again and his next hearing is scheduled for May 2018. Today Berkowitz is a born-again Christian and described as a model prisoner.

Painting - George Washington Crossing the Delaware Essay

Painting - George Washington Crossing the Delaware - Essay Example The essay "Painting - George Washington Crossing the Delaware" focuses on the George Washington Crossing the Delaware, painted in 1851 by Emanuel Gottlieb Leutze. The obvious mismatch in dates between the creation of the painting and the actual crossing of the Delaware suggest that this was an event that was painted well after the fact – in fact, well after many of the recognizable men in the boat had been placed in their graves. Understanding a little about the history of the painting itself, along with the artist who painted it, helps to unravel some of the historical elements of the painting, both accurate and inaccurate. Emanuel Gottlieb Leutze was a German-born painter who spent much of his life hopping back and forth across the Atlantic. He was born in Wurttemberg, Germany in the spring of 1816 and was brought to America as a small boy. It is known that he was in America in 1825 but that by 1841 he was on his way back to Germany again to take a course in art at the Royal Academy of Fine Arts (Bowman, 1995). From his earliest works, one can begin to see his fascination with historical subjects as his first work, purchased by the Dusseldorf Art Union, was entitled Columbus before the Council of Salamanca. According to John Bowman’s (1995) essay on the painter, Leutze determined to paint the image of one of the more decisive moments of the Revolutionary War as a means of supporting the various revolutionary movements that were then taking place in Europe at the time of the painting.

Changes in the Banking Industry Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 1

Changes in the Banking Industry - Essay Example The capital ratio stands at 11.39% in 2010 when compared to 8% in 2006. The number of institutions reporting to the FDIC has decreased from 8833 institutions in the year 2005 to 7760 institutions in 2010. The number of problem institutions has increased drastically on a year on year basis from 552 in 2009 to 860 in 2010. The number of failed institutions has also increased to 127 institutions in 2010 from just 3 institutions in the year 2007. Bank’s return on assets which refers to net income as a percentage of total assets, increased which suggests that the banking industry is able to garner more interest income with the rising in demand for loans with reducing the cost of funds, therefore sustaining revenues and improving asset quality. In relation to the core capital ratio, Tier 1 capital can absorb losses without a bank being required to cease its functioning. Therefore increase in core capital ratio indicates the health of the banking industry is improving considerably. T he banking industry is giving prime importance to strengthening the Tier 1 level of capital. Credit growth has been strong due to which the net interest margin is indicating an upward trend with a 291.33% increase in net operating income of banks. Despite this relatively good news, the number of problem institutions has increased primarily because of financial, operational or managerial weaknesses that might lead to increased number of failed institutions in the last quarter of 2010. The trend of the number of institutions reporting to FDIC reducing is largely explained by the acquisition of smaller institutions by bigger institutions to prevent banks from failing and also because of increasing number of failed institutions. The number of problem institutions continues to increase but the aggregate assets of these problem institutions continued to decline suggests that this are smaller institutions in nature.  

Critically evaluate evidence obtained from a range of sources Essay

Critically evaluate evidence obtained from a range of sources demonstrating how it can inform practice - Essay Example In Wales, the National Health Services (NHS) holds the mandate of providing a functional framework that guides the entire social and health sector address the health needs of all the different groups. NHS also sets the required standards of health care that the people of Wales should enjoy (National Service Frameworks, 2012:1). The organization came into place in order to address the issue of inconsistency that had prevailed concerning the availability of and access to healthy care. Therefore, the organization has the special mandate of ensuring that a level of consistency does exist. In order to make its goals a success, the body sets up assessment measures of determining the rate at which the departments and organizations involved meet their goals. Moreover, NHS has multiple programs that foster implementation of its goals. Upon defining the desired health standards, it becomes easy for the body to recognize and address the issues that arise (Pierson, 2011:243). However, despite it s efforts, the organization lacks the capacity of handling all the health issues of the people of Wales (Pierson, & Thomas, 2010:185). The government of Welsh government has monitors and regulates the care delivery systems to its people (Welsh Government, ‘Bill’, 2012:20). It does this by designing policies, setting of standards, and inspection of service delivery programs and provision of funding to the local authorities. An independent committee looks into the delivery of social services in Wales and presents reports on the areas that need improvement (Independent Commission, 2010:8). According to recent statistics, a third of people in Wales live with a permanent condition reducing the quality of life that they lead. Moreover, a fifth of the entire population had disability issues in 2010 and the prevalence keeps increasing. Other researches indicated that the chances of disability increased with age. This translates to the fact that the

Network Opimisation Problems And Forecasting

Network Opimisation Problems And Forecasting The Makonsel Company, a fully integrated company that both produces and sells goods at its retail outlets. After production, the goods are stored in companys two warehouses until needed by the retail outlets. Trucks are used to transport the goods from the two plants to the warehouses, and then from the warehouses to the three retail outlets. Using units of full truckloads, the following table shows each plants monthly output, its shipping cost per truckload sent to each warehouse, and the maximum amount that it can ship per month to each warehouse. Unit Shipping Cost For each retail outlet (RO), the next table shows its monthly demand, its shipping cost per truckload from each warehouse, and the maximum amount that can be shipped per month from each warehouse. Unit Shipping Cost The Managements objective is to determine the shipping plan (number of truckloads shipped per month from each plant to each warehouse and from each warehouse to each retail outlet) that will minimise the total shipping cost. In order to achieve the objective, the following issues will be discussed : The distribution network of Makonsel Company, algebraic formulation for the network model, spreadsheet formulation for this problem by using the solver of excel and interpretation and recommendation of the result. The distribution network A network model for the Makonsel Company problem as a minimum-cost flow problem According to the data from the table above we put it into a distribution network. The supply nodes in this network are P1 (plant1) and P2 (plant2), the transshipment nodes are W1 (warehouse1) and W2 (warehouse2) and the demand nodes in this network are RO1, RO2 and RO3. And the shipping cost and the shipping capacity differ considerably among these shipping lanes. The cost per unit shipped and the maximum amount that it can ship per month (given in square brackets of the arc) through each lane is shown above corresponding arrow in the above Figure. Algebraic Formulation Solution: Decision variables Makonsel must determine how much to ship per month from each plant to each warehouse and from each warehouse to each retail outlet. Let Xij = Number of truckloads to ship from i to j (i = P1, P2; j = W1, W2). Let Xjk =Number of truckloads to ship from j to k (j =W1, W2 k=RO1, RO2, RO3). Then Makonsels problem may be formulated as Objective: Subject to: The first five constraints ensure that each retail outlet is meet their monthly demand, and the 2 Sources constraints are ensure that each plants monthly output and the last 10 ensure the maximum amount that can be shipped per month. Spreadsheet Formulation After we finished the algebraic formulation, we can transform them to spreadsheet, and using the solver of Excel to work out the distribution problem. The spreadsheet formulations are all showed in the graph below. A spreadsheet model for the Makonsel Company minimum-cost flow problem, where the changing cells (C4:C13) show the optimal solution obtained by the Solver and the target cell (E15) gives the resulting total cost of the flow through the network. Interpretation and Recommendation The optimal solution for the Makonsel Company problem, where the shipping amounts are shown in parentheses over the arrows By using excel we can calculate the minimum total shipping cost of Makonsel Company is  ¿Ã‚ ¡488.125. In order to make the minimum total monthly shipping cost of  ¿Ã‚ ¡488.125, the Makonsel Company should first transport 125 truckloads per month from plant 1to warehouse 1 and 75 units to warehouse 2. And ship 175 truckloads per month from plant 2 to warehouse 1, ship 125 truckloads per month to warehouse2. After that the retail outlet1, retail outlet 2 and retail outlet 3 should get 100 truckloads, 50 truckloads and 100 truckloads from warehouse 1 respectively. And should separately transport 50 truckloads, 150 truckloads and 50 truckloads from warehouse 2 to retail outlet1, retail outlet 2 and retail outlet 3. As we have known the shipping cost per truckload from each plant and each warehouse from the table. Thus the Minimum Cost= 425*125+560*75+510*125+600*175+470*100+505*50 +490*100+390*50+410*150+440*50 =488,125 Conclusion Determined the shipping plan which can minimise the total shipping cost is the management objective of Makonsel Company. By building the distribution network , formulating the constraints and calculating the result through using the solver of excel , Makonsel Company successfully solve the distribution network problem and construct the shipping plan with the minimum total shipping cost of  ¿Ã‚ ¡488.125. Forecasting Introduction The time-series below relates to the Sales of a company (00s) for the last five years. The objective is to use the information contained in the time-series data above to construct a forecast of the next four quarters sales. In order to achieve the objective, the following issues will be discussed: Analysis this time-series, Detrend a Time-Series and construct the Seasonal Indices by MINITAB, Forecasting the next four quarters sales and use measures to identify the forecast accuracy, Reservations about the appropriateness of the forecasting procedure used. Time-series Analysis Main characteristics of this time-series The first step in any forecasting exercise is to plot a graph of the time-series. We transfer the data from the table to Minitab and use the time series plot-simple of Minitab to make the graph, since the time-series was recorded in quarter, so we choose the quarter of calendar in time scale. The plot of this time-series looks like: Form the graph above We can roughly find out that there is a decreasing trend over time, a clear quarterly seasonal effect and it is a table time series, the pattern is regular with little random noise. With the purpose of confirming the characteristics of the time-series, we use the cantered moving averages (CMA). Since the CMA is the average and smoothed data of the actual figures, which is much easier for us to determine the characteristics of the time-series, we use this plot instead. As the time-series was recorded in quarters and with quarterly seasonal effect so the length of moving average is 4, and chose the moving averages, plot the graph smoothed vs. actual. Negative Trend Structure, an decreasing trend over time It is a negative trend structure. Look at the smoothed line of this time-series, as at the beginning of the time-series the sales of this company is about 485 ,however , it keeps decreasing and from about 485 down to around 478 to roughly 471 and finally it decrease to around 405. A clear seasonal structure , additive seasonal structure It can be seen from the graph above that there is a clear quarterly seasonal structure, for each quarter 1 the actual observed value is about 13 units below the trend value. For quarters 2, 3 4 estimating from the graph the actual observed values are 30 above, 22 above and 23 below the estimated trend values. Seasonal Structures: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 -13 30 22 -23 These are estimates of the seasonal indices; and also in this case, for a given variable the quarter 1 is 13 units below trend, quarter 2, 3 are 30 units and 22 units above trend, quarter 4 is 23 units below trend. And it can be seen from the graph above, seasonal deviation is constant about the trend so this seasonal structure is additive. A table time series, the pattern is regular with little random noise The graph of Moving average plot for sales above shows us that the pattern is regular with little random noise, it decreasing stability of the seasonal pattern, and also from the smoothed line we can find that the series reduce stability, from about 485 down to around 478 to roughly 471, ect. No more than 10units lower. Model the time-series QUADRATIC TREND MODELS There are two trend models ,one is linear trend model (Trend = a + b*t ) and the other is Quadratic trend model (Trend = a + b*t + ct2 ), and as we have been calculated the Cantered Moving Average (CMA)above, which is the average and smoothed line of the actual sales, so by using the CMA, we can use value of these two models to compare with the value of CMA, and then choose the model which the value is much closer to the CMA as our forecasting model. There are three commonly used measures of forecast accuracy: Mean Square Deviation (MSD), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). And the smaller the data is, the more accurate of the forecast. And it can be seen from the graph above that the Quadratic Trend Model, MAPE=0.43297, MAD=1.91172, MSD = 5.44313, and to the Linear Trend Model, MAPE=0.51281, MAD=2.21232, MSD = 7.74838. The data of the Quadratic Trend Model are all smaller than the Linear Trend Model, which means that the value of quadratic trend model is much closer than value of the CMA; the quadratic trend model is much more accurate than the linear trend model, so choose the quadratic trend model to forecast. Detrend a Time-Series and construct SI of MINITAB Detrend a Time-Series Detrend a Time-Series, which means Sales-Trend (DIV), the gap between the actual sales and the forecast sales. After we have decided to take the quadratic model to forecast, we can record the data as the trend data, and the plot the graph above to compare with the sales and trend. And use the actual sales data minus the forecast one we can Detrend a Time-Series. As the graph shows us above the DIV1=472-500.367=-28.3673, DIV2=516-493.333=22.6674, DIV3=507-486.459=20.5414, DIV4=462-479.745=-17.7454, etc. By using the Minitab, we can use the calculator to figure the result. Construct the Seasonal Indices by MINITAB As Seasonal Indices is the quarter average of DIV, after we have calculated the DIV, we can use MINITAB to construct the seasonal indices. And in the MINITAB, we use the decomposition to figure out the SI. As we have described before that the sales trend of this company is additive and seasonal and the data were recorded in quarter, so the seasonal indices is four quarters as a unit, the seasonal length is 4 and the model type is additive. And Seasonal Indices is the average of each quarter of DIV, so the seasonal indices can be calculated as below: Quarter1=SI1= (DIV1+DIV5+DIV9+DIV13+DIV17)/5= -24.0937 Quarter2=SI2= (DIV2+DIV6+DIV10+DIV14+DIV18)/5=20.4062 Quarter3=SI3= (DIV3+DIV7+DIV11+DIV15+DIV19)/5=17.2812 Quarter4=SI4= (DIV4+DIV8+DIV12+DIV16+DIV20)/5=-13.5937 Since seasonal indices is the average of each quarter of DIV so SI is quarterly cycle, the value of SI5 will equal to the value of SI1, SI6=SI2, etc. And also it can be seen from graph above that the SI is quarterly cycle. Forecasting and measures of forecast accuracy Future Forecast As the Future Forecast equal Future Trend plus Future Seasonal Indices, so first we should use the CMA to calculate the future trend of the next four quarters. Since the CMA is the average and the smoothed data of the actual data, using the data of CMA can let forecast more accuracy. And the time-series is seasonal structure of quarter, so the number of forecast is 4. And we use trend analysis to calculate the future trend. After we figure out the future trend, copy the first four Seasonal Indices (SI is quarterly cycle) which we have calculated before (-24.0937, 20.4062, 17.2812, -13.5937), as Future Seasonal Indices. And then use the FTrend and FSI to figure out the Future Forecast value (FFC=FTrend+FSI). After figure out the FFC, copy them after the FC to plot a forecast. The plot of time series of sales and forecast looks like: So the next four quarters; Q1, Q2, Q3 Q4 of 2009 are: Q1=366.116, Q2=406.796, Q3=400.011, Q4=365.637 Measures of forecast accuracy After we calculate the forecasts for the next four quarters, we need to know whether the forecast is accurate or not, so we use the three commonly used measures of forecast accuracy: MSD, MPE and MAD to check the forecasts. i. Mean Square Deviation: MSD = S (Xt Ft)2/n ii. Mean Absolute Deviation: MAD = S |Xt Ft| /n iii. Mean Percentage Error: MPE = S |(Xt Ft)/Xt| /n Since all of measures above need the value of Xt Ft (error), so we should calculate the error first. Error = Sales-FC, in the Minitab we use calculator to figure it out. After calculated the error, we can figure out the value of accuracy. MSD = S (Xt Ft)2/n MAD = S |Xt Ft| /n MPE = S |(Xt Ft)/Xt| /n And for this forecast the MSD=29.3526, MAD=4.69560, MPE=1.08963. As we all know for each forecast indicator, the lower value, the higher prediction accuracy. And usually we use the MPE to confirm the accuracy. Lets look at the MPE, the value of MPE is equal to 1.08963%, though the value of MPE is slightly higher than 1%, it close to 1%, the forecast is still accuracy. Reservation In this forecasting procedure we faced two choices, one is determined the seasonal structure of the time-series, determining whether the seasonal structure is additive or multiplicative. And the other one is to confirm the trend model, choosing the linear model or the quadratic model. The choice we make will affect the accuracy of forecasting. Additive or Multiplicative In this forecasting, we analysis the time-series as additive seasonal structure by using method below ¼Ã… ¡ Seasonal Structures: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 -13 30 22 -23 In this case ¼Ã…’for a given variable the quarter 1 is 13 units below trend, quarter 2 is 30 units above trend, etc. This is an Additive Seasonal Index. Alternatively we could have expressed the index as follows: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 -13% 30% 22% -23% Here the quarter 1 data is 13% below the trend value, or more conventionally 87% of trend, similarly for the other quarters. It is conventional to express this Seasonal Index as: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 87% 130% 122% 77% This is called a Multiplicative Seasonal Index and if the seasonal deviation is proportional to the trend then the seasonal structure is multiplicative. In this case we preferred the additive seasonal structure as the time-series constant about the trend, but in fact it could proportional to the trend and become the multiplicative seasonal structure in the future, so we should make appropriate adjustments base on the future data. Linear or Quadratic model In this case, we modeled the time-series as quadratic model due to the data the company provided closer to the quadratic model now, however, with the future data the model may be transformed into the linear model. Conclusion The objective of the company is to use time-series data to construct a forecast of the next four quarters sales. So as to do the forecast first we analysed the time-series to determine main characteristics of this time-series and modeled it, then found out the difference between the sales and trend to construct the seasonal indices, after that did the forecasting and to identify whether the forecast accurate or not by using the MAD, MSD and MPE. And the next four quarters sales of this company are Q1=366.116, Q2=406.796, Q3=400.011, Q4=365.637. However, during the forecasting procedure we should also consider about the choice we have made whether to choose additive or multiplicative, the linear model or the quadratic model will affect the accuracy of forecasting.

Effects of Segregation and Racism in Of Mice and Men Chapter 4 :: John Steinbeck

In the story, Crooks' home is, "a little shed that leaned off the wall of the barn." This suggests that he is isolated from the other men and treated like the animals he cares for and as such is made to live with them. Crooks' "bunk" was actually a long box filled with straw, which could further reinforce the fact that he is treated like an animal or it could show that he is poor and has low, if any social status. To say that Steinbeck seems to make his characters seem low and poor, Crooks seems to have a number of pleasant possessions, however, some are damaged but this could represent their amount of use. These include, "a single barreled shotgun" which suggests that he feels threatened and needs protection, although it could be a trophy from previous times in his past that he would like to remember. Also, he owns a "big alarm clock" which may show that he is punctual, ordered and that he requires being on time given the job but it may also show that because he is isolated from the other men, he relies less on others to awaken him in the mornings. ?A tattered dictionary? is another of his personal items, which could define his character as intelligent, but that he wants to be seen and it could be a way to prevent his constant loneliness from being a problem. Another piece of his home comes in the form of ?a mauled copy of the California civil code,? which can be used to represent his character?s intelligence plus that he reads to escape solitude, in addition to this point, as a coloured person in those times, Crooks? life must have been difficult, knowing his right as a person could aid in protection with which he needs. The last article in Crooks? inventory of significance would be his ?gold-rimmed spectacles,? which could enable him to see clearly, but may also allow him to view the world in a different perspective. The last point regarding Crooks? room may perhaps be seen as a relevant one, ?this room was swept and fairly neat?? could illustrate Crooks as a proud, aloof man. Finally, the fact that Crooks keeps his distance and demands that others keep theirs could again reinforce the point that he feels threatened and this would keep him protected. When Lennie enters the room, we learn more about the effects of isolation. Effects of Segregation and Racism in Of Mice and Men Chapter 4 :: John Steinbeck In the story, Crooks' home is, "a little shed that leaned off the wall of the barn." This suggests that he is isolated from the other men and treated like the animals he cares for and as such is made to live with them. Crooks' "bunk" was actually a long box filled with straw, which could further reinforce the fact that he is treated like an animal or it could show that he is poor and has low, if any social status. To say that Steinbeck seems to make his characters seem low and poor, Crooks seems to have a number of pleasant possessions, however, some are damaged but this could represent their amount of use. These include, "a single barreled shotgun" which suggests that he feels threatened and needs protection, although it could be a trophy from previous times in his past that he would like to remember. Also, he owns a "big alarm clock" which may show that he is punctual, ordered and that he requires being on time given the job but it may also show that because he is isolated from the other men, he relies less on others to awaken him in the mornings. ?A tattered dictionary? is another of his personal items, which could define his character as intelligent, but that he wants to be seen and it could be a way to prevent his constant loneliness from being a problem. Another piece of his home comes in the form of ?a mauled copy of the California civil code,? which can be used to represent his character?s intelligence plus that he reads to escape solitude, in addition to this point, as a coloured person in those times, Crooks? life must have been difficult, knowing his right as a person could aid in protection with which he needs. The last article in Crooks? inventory of significance would be his ?gold-rimmed spectacles,? which could enable him to see clearly, but may also allow him to view the world in a different perspective. The last point regarding Crooks? room may perhaps be seen as a relevant one, ?this room was swept and fairly neat?? could illustrate Crooks as a proud, aloof man. Finally, the fact that Crooks keeps his distance and demands that others keep theirs could again reinforce the point that he feels threatened and this would keep him protected. When Lennie enters the room, we learn more about the effects of isolation.